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We continue to expect the Fed to raise rates three more times, raising the fed funds rate to 4.50 percent by the end of January. - Drew Matus Quotes

We continue to expect the Fed to raise rates three more times, raising the fed funds rate to 4.50 percent by the end of January.

The trend in this data suggests a stronger payroll report than we had been anticipating. - Drew Matus Quotes

The trend in this data suggests a stronger payroll report than we had been anticipating.

An extraordinarily weak figure for August. As a result, we are lowering our Philadelphia Fed survey forecast to 18.0. - Drew Matus Quotes

An extraordinarily weak figure for August. As a result, we are lowering our Philadelphia Fed survey forecast to 18.0.

The ISM reports are honestly not the best way to go about forecasting the payroll report. - Drew Matus Quotes

The ISM reports are honestly not the best way to go about forecasting the payroll report.

The decline in the index was the result of another move down in consumers' view of their personal finances -- most likely as a result of the continuing high level of oil prices, the job outlook, another Fed rate hike and the continued negative remarks on the state of the economy during the run up to the election in November. - Drew Matus Quotes

The decline in the index was the result of another move down in consumers' view of their personal finances -- most likely as a result of the continuing high level of oil prices, the job outlook, another Fed rate hike and the continued negative remarks on the state of the economy during the run up to the election in November.

Treasury has claimed it didn't want to issue anything beyond 10-years because that tied their hands. Now the market's thinking that if a 20-year is suddenly OK, then why not bring back the 30-year? - Drew Matus Quotes

Treasury has claimed it didn't want to issue anything beyond 10-years because that tied their hands. Now the market's thinking that if a 20-year is suddenly OK, then why not bring back the 30-year?

I would have thought people would have changed their earnings expectations given that higher rates were expected to slow growth. The expectation all along was that because of productivity growth, companies would be able to keep boosting their profit margins, even if they weren't producing as much in goods and services, but that's obviously is not the case. - Drew Matus Quotes

I would have thought people would have changed their earnings expectations given that higher rates were expected to slow growth. The expectation all along was that because of productivity growth, companies would be able to keep boosting their profit margins, even if they weren't producing as much in goods and services, but that's obviously is not the case.

Higher oil increasingly will creep into the indicators. Today, it biased the trade gap higher and pushed up import prices and also impeded the consumer sentiment number. - Drew Matus Quotes

Higher oil increasingly will creep into the indicators. Today, it biased the trade gap higher and pushed up import prices and also impeded the consumer sentiment number.

Could there have been an impact from the storm? Yes. Can we quantify it? No. - Drew Matus Quotes

Could there have been an impact from the storm? Yes. Can we quantify it? No.

While this raises a red flag, no one should be in panic mode just yet. - Drew Matus Quotes

While this raises a red flag, no one should be in panic mode just yet.

Growth is picking up in the labor market. People are returning to work, working longer hours and making more money. This shows that the economy is healthy. Fears of a soft patch were overblown. - Drew Matus Quotes

Growth is picking up in the labor market. People are returning to work, working longer hours and making more money. This shows that the economy is healthy. Fears of a soft patch were overblown.

People are going to take advantage of the lower interest rates to buy big ticket items like automobiles. People are buying what's cheap. The impact occurs more in the luxury spending areas. - Drew Matus Quotes

People are going to take advantage of the lower interest rates to buy big ticket items like automobiles. People are buying what's cheap. The impact occurs more in the luxury spending areas.

We have had an extraordinary period of job growth the last four months. The bond market is always worried about higher growth, and the equity market is concerned that the Fed might be more likely to overshoot, and take rates too high. - Drew Matus Quotes

We have had an extraordinary period of job growth the last four months. The bond market is always worried about higher growth, and the equity market is concerned that the Fed might be more likely to overshoot, and take rates too high.

We expect a balanced speech that reaffirms that a March hike is likely, but that subsequent moves are data-dependent. - Drew Matus Quotes

We expect a balanced speech that reaffirms that a March hike is likely, but that subsequent moves are data-dependent.

It's the inflation story, it's there and it's got implications going forward. - Drew Matus Quotes

It's the inflation story, it's there and it's got implications going forward.

This level of inflation, combined with falling unemployment and rising capacity utilization, is a recipe for continued preventative rate hikes. - Drew Matus Quotes

This level of inflation, combined with falling unemployment and rising capacity utilization, is a recipe for continued preventative rate hikes.

Modestly weaker-then-expected capital goods orders data suggest a slight shift in growth toward Q4 away from Q1 but the simple fact is that the data clearly suggests that factories are going to be humming throughout Q1. - Drew Matus Quotes

Modestly weaker-then-expected capital goods orders data suggest a slight shift in growth toward Q4 away from Q1 but the simple fact is that the data clearly suggests that factories are going to be humming throughout Q1.

We expect the recent jump in retail gasoline prices to push down confidence. Optimistic views around the labor market will likely offset some of the gasoline sticker shock. - Drew Matus Quotes

We expect the recent jump in retail gasoline prices to push down confidence. Optimistic views around the labor market will likely offset some of the gasoline sticker shock.

Growth was lower than expectations because of inventories -- which will need to be rebuilt -- while moderating employment costs will make it less costly for firms to hire additional workers. The still-strong level of wage and salary should buoy consumption. - Drew Matus Quotes

Growth was lower than expectations because of inventories -- which will need to be rebuilt -- while moderating employment costs will make it less costly for firms to hire additional workers. The still-strong level of wage and salary should buoy consumption.

From his comments, it is clear that the US Fed will keep raising rates, hoping to bring the housing market to a very soft landing. - Drew Matus Quotes

From his comments, it is clear that the US Fed will keep raising rates, hoping to bring the housing market to a very soft landing.

People are focusing on the impact of higher energy prices on the consumer instead of focusing on the impact of higher energy prices on inflation. - Drew Matus Quotes

People are focusing on the impact of higher energy prices on the consumer instead of focusing on the impact of higher energy prices on inflation.

We've got some good news in this report but it's likely to be short-lived. We can expect the large trade deficits we've come to know to continue for the rest of the year. - Drew Matus Quotes

We've got some good news in this report but it's likely to be short-lived. We can expect the large trade deficits we've come to know to continue for the rest of the year.

News

Despite the modest decline, the other indices released within this report suggest more strength than does the headline. - Drew Matus Quotes

Despite the modest decline, the other indices released within this report suggest more strength than does the headline.

This raises possibility of a pass through into core inflation. While companies can absorb some of the pipeline pressures, the way to do so is productivity gains that we're not seeing anymore. - Drew Matus Quotes

This raises possibility of a pass through into core inflation. While companies can absorb some of the pipeline pressures, the way to do so is productivity gains that we're not seeing anymore.

The prices received number tells us that basically some firms are gaining pricing power. What that really means is there could be inflation in the outlook. - Drew Matus Quotes

The prices received number tells us that basically some firms are gaining pricing power. What that really means is there could be inflation in the outlook.

Power

The data today suggests that there was only a temporary pause in this sector and that we can expect more growth going forward. - Drew Matus Quotes

The data today suggests that there was only a temporary pause in this sector and that we can expect more growth going forward.

The Fed has again tried to be all things to everyone and ended up being nothing to nobody. - Drew Matus Quotes

The Fed has again tried to be all things to everyone and ended up being nothing to nobody.

There are figures that show roughly 50 percent of households have exposure to equities in some form, and clearly we would start to see a dip in consumer confidence and some retrenchment in spending from the recent sell-off, I don't think this is necessarily the beginning of a bear market. - Drew Matus Quotes

There are figures that show roughly 50 percent of households have exposure to equities in some form, and clearly we would start to see a dip in consumer confidence and some retrenchment in spending from the recent sell-off, I don't think this is necessarily the beginning of a bear market.

There's a lot of data that will show him (Greenspan) whether or not consumers are feeling safe. - Drew Matus Quotes

There's a lot of data that will show him (Greenspan) whether or not consumers are feeling safe.

It was exactly as the market expected, with them commenting on both the overall good news and the modest areas of weakness left in the economy. The Fed is on hold until August. - Drew Matus Quotes

It was exactly as the market expected, with them commenting on both the overall good news and the modest areas of weakness left in the economy. The Fed is on hold until August.

News

These numbers are weak across the board. But of course, that's good for bonds. It just adds to the case for the Fed leaving rates low for a very long time to come. - Drew Matus Quotes

These numbers are weak across the board. But of course, that's good for bonds. It just adds to the case for the Fed leaving rates low for a very long time to come.

Given that the risks to our forecast are probably to the upside, even if we take a tenth of a point away [due to inventories], it's probably best to leave the forecast sit [at 6 percent]. - Drew Matus Quotes

Given that the risks to our forecast are probably to the upside, even if we take a tenth of a point away [due to inventories], it's probably best to leave the forecast sit [at 6 percent].

This is obviously an extraordinarily strong report, led by the consumer, but also with good signs about the state of the business sector and business confidence. - Drew Matus Quotes

This is obviously an extraordinarily strong report, led by the consumer, but also with good signs about the state of the business sector and business confidence.

Of course it's great for inflation. But, really, the market doesn't care about the numbers because they're not the payrolls report. - Drew Matus Quotes

Of course it's great for inflation. But, really, the market doesn't care about the numbers because they're not the payrolls report.

People are trying to figure out how serious (the report); Homeland Security doesn't have anything on its Web site. - Drew Matus Quotes

People are trying to figure out how serious (the report); Homeland Security doesn't have anything on its Web site.

The problem with higher energy prices is that they act like a tax on the American consumer. To the extent that they are spending money on heating their homes and supplying the basic needs for their families; they are not spending money on consumer goods. - Drew Matus Quotes

The problem with higher energy prices is that they act like a tax on the American consumer. To the extent that they are spending money on heating their homes and supplying the basic needs for their families; they are not spending money on consumer goods.

The overall number does suggest modest amounts of strength, but nothing necessarily that gets me too excited. - Drew Matus Quotes

The overall number does suggest modest amounts of strength, but nothing necessarily that gets me too excited.

Traditionally, we have had some connection between the amount of firing and the amount of hiring in the economy. That linkage has broken as productivity gains have taken hold and firms have become more cautious overall. - Drew Matus Quotes

Traditionally, we have had some connection between the amount of firing and the amount of hiring in the economy. That linkage has broken as productivity gains have taken hold and firms have become more cautious overall.

When you have M&A activity, strategic decisions are being made, and that's a development that only occurs when people are very confident and looking towards the future. That will help the economy, and we will have hiring. - Drew Matus Quotes

When you have M&A activity, strategic decisions are being made, and that's a development that only occurs when people are very confident and looking towards the future. That will help the economy, and we will have hiring.

We had a lot of companies in that period that were not making money, hiring a lot of people who were not doing anything for their pay. - Drew Matus Quotes

We had a lot of companies in that period that were not making money, hiring a lot of people who were not doing anything for their pay.

Money

A sizeable two-month decline in new home sales likely means that the long-awaited move back toward a more sustainable rate of housing activity has begun. - Drew Matus Quotes

A sizeable two-month decline in new home sales likely means that the long-awaited move back toward a more sustainable rate of housing activity has begun.

Home

The big wild card becomes what the Fed does about it. That's why the bond market is rallying -- rather than concentrate on the inflationary aspects of higher oil prices, the market thinks the Fed will focus on the growth aspects. - Drew Matus Quotes

The big wild card becomes what the Fed does about it. That's why the bond market is rallying -- rather than concentrate on the inflationary aspects of higher oil prices, the market thinks the Fed will focus on the growth aspects.

The risk is that there's something that economists aren't picking up. As oil prices go higher, firms see margins compress and that could put a squeeze on hiring. - Drew Matus Quotes

The risk is that there's something that economists aren't picking up. As oil prices go higher, firms see margins compress and that could put a squeeze on hiring.

Looking ahead, we can't see what is going to cause a downturn of enough significance to take inflationary pressure out of the economy and cause the Fed to stop raising rates. - Drew Matus Quotes

Looking ahead, we can't see what is going to cause a downturn of enough significance to take inflationary pressure out of the economy and cause the Fed to stop raising rates.

I think what this does is ratify the Fed's current stance --- moving at a measured pace seems to be the prudent course. - Drew Matus Quotes

I think what this does is ratify the Fed's current stance --- moving at a measured pace seems to be the prudent course.

With this kind of income growth, the consumer has room to run. This tells us we don't need to worry about the first quarter. - Drew Matus Quotes

With this kind of income growth, the consumer has room to run. This tells us we don't need to worry about the first quarter.

The important thing, though, (it that) it's a January number. So we ended the fourth quarter on 1.1% GDP growth, but now, starting the next new quarter, we're going to have this surge in housing activity. And it's going to add to GDP estimates for the first quarter. - Drew Matus Quotes

The important thing, though, (it that) it's a January number. So we ended the fourth quarter on 1.1% GDP growth, but now, starting the next new quarter, we're going to have this surge in housing activity. And it's going to add to GDP estimates for the first quarter.

[The data] came right in [line with] what the Commerce Department was estimating, and it won't have any impact on the GDP equation. - Drew Matus Quotes

[The data] came right in [line with] what the Commerce Department was estimating, and it won't have any impact on the GDP equation.

There have been historical precedents where people have spent well in excess of what they've earned from foreign trading partners for extended periods of time and nothing has happened. The big wild card is you have a reserve currency (such as the dollar), how much extra room does that give you. That's the $100,000 question, or the $100 million question, or the $1 trillion question. - Drew Matus Quotes

There have been historical precedents where people have spent well in excess of what they've earned from foreign trading partners for extended periods of time and nothing has happened. The big wild card is you have a reserve currency (such as the dollar), how much extra room does that give you. That's the $100,000 question, or the $100 million question, or the $1 trillion question.

Hiring a Fed chairman is like firing a missile. There's no recall button. - Drew Matus Quotes

Hiring a Fed chairman is like firing a missile. There's no recall button.

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